The naira opens Q2’s final week in familiar territory — CBN ~₦1,352–₦1,358, parallel ₦1,390–₦1,400, spread between ₦42 and ₦48 depending on operator and location. After last week’s diplomatic whipsaw — Araghchi in, Trump out, Witkoff cancelled — the naira has settled into a holding pattern that is now three weeks old. The rate has not collapsed and it has not surged. The foundations are intact.

The oil market told a more dramatic story at Monday’s open. Brent briefly touched $108.50 per barrel — the highest since early April — as traders priced in the failure of the Islamabad weekend talks. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard boarding two cargo ships near Hormuz added fuel to the fire. But by mid-morning, oil was paring those gains, back toward $106.55, as a significant new diplomatic signal emerged: Iran has reportedly tabled a new proposal to the US that separates the Hormuz issue from the nuclear question — offering a Hormuz reopening deal while suggesting nuclear talks be handled on a separate track. That is a major shift from Iran’s previous position that the two were inseparable.

Meanwhile Araghchi is in Moscow, meeting President Putin on Monday — a signal that Iran is working to build a broader diplomatic coalition before returning to direct US engagement. The naira is watching all of this like a tightly coiled spring: the Hormuz-only proposal, if taken seriously by Washington, is exactly the kind of partial breakthrough that could send oil back below $95 and push the naira toward ₦1,330–₦1,340 within days.